Keeping Up With Cancer

 

Cancer enthusiasts will know that there are zillions of web sites giving info on cancer stats — incidence, mortality, etc. — around the world. Notable is the World Health Organization’s Globocan, an amazing compilation of data on all cancers from every country. The Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration audits diagnosis rates and deaths for 29 types of cancer around the world each year. Needless to say, this too is a vast undertaking involving hundreds of scientists around the world. The organizing genius is Dr. Christina Fitzmaurice of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the University of Washington, Seattle and, under her guidance, their update for 2016 has just come out.

What’s new?

In 2016 there were 17.2 million people diagnosed with cancer. 8.9 million died from cancers. By 2030 the number of new cancer cases per year is expected to reach 24 million. Well, you knew the numbers were going to be big — almost incomprehensibly so. But here’s the real shaker: the 17.2 M is 28% up on the 2006 figure — yes, that’s a rise of more than one quarter.

Yearly global cancer deaths from 1990 to 2016.

The green line is total deaths per 100,000 people.

Red line: Cancer death rates taking account of the increase in world population.

Blue line: Age-standardized death rates: these are corrected for population size and age structure. Age-standardization therefore gives a better indication of the prevalence and incidence of underlying cancer risk factors between countries and with time without the influence of demographic and population structure changes.

The numbers on the vertical axis are deaths per 100,000 people. From Our World in Data.

Any real surprises?

No. An increase of more than one quarter in cancer cases does indeed make you think but the grim numbers are only what you would predict from looking at the trends over the last 40 years. The graph shows death rates that, of course, reflect incidence. The total figure (top) shows starkly how the rise in the population of the world and our increasing life-span is steadily pushing up the overall cancer burden.

So it’s a mega-problem but the trends are smooth and gradual. There’s been no drastic upheaval.

Global trends

Yearly global cancer deaths from 1990 to 2016 for the four major cancer types.

The numbers on the vertical axis are age-standardized death rates per 100,000 people.

Because age-standardization assumes a constant population age & structure it permits comparisons between countries and over time without the effects of a changing age distribution within a population. From Our World in Data.

The global trends in deaths from the four major cancers look mildly encouraging (above). However, these should not cheer us up too much. In the developed world there are some positives. In the USA, for example, over the last 17 years deaths from prostate are down from 31.6 to 18.9, for breast from 26.6 to 20.3 and for lung from 55.4 to 40.6 per 100,000 people. For bowel cancer there’s been a slight increase (4.1 to 4.8).

In the wider world, however, the really dispiriting thing shown by the latest figures is that the increases in incidence and deaths are greatest in low- and middle-income countries.

What can we do?

Lung cancer (includes cancers of the trachea and bronchi) remains the world’s biggest cancer killer, accounting for 20% of all deaths in 2016. Over 90% of these were caused by tobacco. In the UK and the USA lung cancer deaths in men have markedly declined as a result of widespread smoking bans, as the graph below shows, and the female figures have started to show a sight decline.

Lung cancer deaths per 100,000 by sex from 1950 to 2002 for the UK and the USA. From Our World in Data.

Asia contributes over half the global burden of cancer but the incidence in Asia is about half that in North America. However, the ratio of cancer deaths to the number of new cancer cases in Asia is double that in North America. Although the leading cause of death world-wide is heart disease, in China it is cancer. Every year more than four million Chinese are diagnosed with the disease and nearly three million die from it. Overall, tobacco smoking is responsible for about one-quarter of all cancer deaths in China. Nevertheless, Chinese smoking rates continue to rise and air pollution in the major cities is fuelling the problem.

The under-developed world, however, continues to be targeted by the tobacco industry and the successful promotion of their products means that there is no end in sight to one of mankind’s more bizarre and revolting forms of self-destruction.

There are, of course, other things within our control that contribute significantly to the global cancer burden. If only we could give everyone clean water to drink, restrict our red meat and processed food consumption and control our exposure to uv in sunlight we would cut cancer by at least one half.

If only …

Reference

The Global Burden of Disease Cancer Collaboration (2018). Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2016: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. JAMA Oncol. Published online June 2, 2018. doi:10.1001/jamaoncol.2018.2706.

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