Please … Not Another Helping

 

You may have seen the headlines of the: “Processed food, sugary cereals and sliced bread may contribute to cancer risk” ilk, as this recently published study (February 2018) was extensively covered in the media — the Times of London had a front page spread no less.

So I feel obliged to follow suit — albeit with a heavy heart: it’s one of those depressing exercises in which you’re sure you know the answer before you start.

Who dunnit?

It’s a mainly French study (well, it is about food) led by Thibault Fiolet, Mathilde Touvier and colleagues from the Sorbonne in Paris. It’s what’s called a prospective cohort study, meaning that a group of individuals, who in this case differed in what they ate, were followed over time to see if diet affected their risk of getting cancers and in particular whether it had any impact on breast, prostate or colorectal cancer. They started acquiring participants about 20 years ago and their report in the British Medical Journal summarized how nearly 105 thousand French adults got on consuming 3,300 (!) different food items between them, based on each person keeping 24 hour dietary records designed to record their usual consumption.

Foods were grouped according to degree of processing. The stuff under the spotlight is ‘ultra-processed’ — meaning that it has been chemically tinkered with to get rid of bugs, give it a long shelf-life, make it convenient to use, look good and taste palatable.

What makes a food ‘ultra-processed’ is worked out by something called the NOVA classification. I’ve included their categories at the end.

Relative contribution of each food group to ultra-processed food consumption in diet (from Fiolet et al. 2018).

And the result?

The first thing to be said is that this study is a massive labour of love. You need the huge number of over 100,000 cases even to begin to squeeze out statistically significant effects — so the team has put in a terrific amount of work.

After all the squeezing there emerged a marginal increase in risk of getting cancer in the ultra-processed food eaters and a similar slight increase specifically for breast cancer (the hazard ratios were 1.12 and 1.11 respectively). There was no significant link to prostate and colorectal cancers.

Which may mean something. But it’s hard to get excited, not merely because the effects described are small but more so because such studies are desperately fraught and the upshot familiar.

One problem is that they rely on individuals keeping accurate records. Another problem here is that the classification of ‘ultra-processed’ is somewhat arbitrary — and it’s also very broad — leaving one asking what the underlying cause might be: ‘is it sugar, fat or what?’ Furthermore, although the authors tried manfully to allow for factors like smoking and obesity, it’s impossible to do this with complete certainty. The authors themselves noted that, for example, they couldn’t allow for the effects of oral contraception.

The authors are quite right to point out that it is important to disentangle the facets of food processing that bear on our long-term health and that further studies are needed.

I would only add ‘rather you than me.’

Perforce in these pages we have gone on about diets good and bad so there is no need to regurgitate. Suffice to say that my advice on what to eat is the same as that of any other sane person and summarized in Dennis’s Pet Menace — and it’s not been remotely affected by this new research which, in effect, says ‘junk food is probably bad for you in the long run.’ But let’s leave the last word to Tom Sanders of King’s College London: “What people eat is an expression of their life-style in general, and may not be causatively linked to the risk of cancer.” 

Reference

Fiolet, T. et al. (2018). Consumption of ultra-processed foods and cancer risk: results from NutriNet-Santé prospective cohort. BMJ 2018;360:k322 http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmj.k322

NOVA classification:

The ultra-processed food group is defined by opposition to the other NOVA groups: “unprocessed or minimally processed foods” (fresh, dried, ground, chilled, frozen, pasteurised, or fermented staple foods such as fruits, vegetables, pulses, rice, pasta, eggs, meat, fish, or milk), “processed culinary ingredients” (salt, vegetable oils, butter, sugar, and other substances extracted from foods and used in kitchens to transform unprocessed or minimally processed foods into culinary preparations), and “processed foods” (canned vegetables with added salt, sugar coated dried fruits, meat products preserved only by salting, cheeses, freshly made unpackaged breads, and other products manufactured with the addition of salt, sugar, or other substances of the “processed culinary ingredients” group).

Pass the Aspirin

And so you should if you’ve got a headache – unless, of course, you prefer paracetamol. There can scarcely be anyone who hasn’t resorted to a dose of slightly modified salicylic acid (For the chemists: its hydroxyl group is converted into an ester group (R-OH → R-OCOCH3) in aspirin), given that the world gobbles up an estimated 40,000 tonnes of the stuff every year. It’s arguable, therefore, that an obscure clergyman by the name of Edward Stone has done more for human suffering than pretty well anyone, for it was he who, in 1763, made a powder from the bark of willow trees and discovered its wondrous property. The bark and leaves had actually been used for centuries – back at least to the time of Hippocrates – for reducing pain and fever, although it wasn’t until 1899 that Aspirin made its debut on the market and it was 1971 before John Vane discovered how it actually worked. He got a Nobel Prize for showing that it blocks production of things called prostaglandins that act a bit like hormones to regulate inflammation (for the chemists – again! – it irreversibly inactivates the enzyme cyclooxygenase, known as COX to its pals).

Daily pill popping

Aside from fixing the odd ache, over the years evidence has gradually accumulated that people at high risk of heart attack and those who have survived a heart attack should take a low-dose of aspirin every day. In addition to decreasing inflammation (by blocking prostaglandins) aspirin inhibits the formation of blood clots – so helping to prevent heart attack and stroke. Almost as a side-effect the studies that have lead to this being a firm recommendation have also shown that aspirin may reduce the risk of cancers, particularly of the bowel (colorectal cancer). Notably, Peter Rothwell and colleagues from Oxford showed that daily aspirin taken for 10 years reduced the risk of bowel cancer by 24% and also protected against oesophageal cancer – and a more recent analysis has broadly supported these findings. In addition they have also found that aspirin lowers the risk of cancers spreading around the body, i.e. forming distant metastases.

Why is aspirin giving us a headache – again?

First because a large amount of media coverage has been given to a report from Leiden University Medical Center, presented at The European Cancer Congress in September, that used Dutch records to see whether taking aspirin after being diagnosed with gastrointestinal cancer influenced survival. Their conclusion was that patients using aspirin after diagnosis doubled their survival chances compared with those who did not take aspirin. Needless to say, these words have been trumpeted by newspapers from The Times to the Daily Mail in the usual fashion (“Aspirin could almost double your chance of surviving cancer”). Unfortunately we can’t lay all the blame on the press: the authors of the report used the tactic of issuing a Press Release, a thoroughly reprehensible ploy for gaining attention when the work involved has not been peer reviewed. (The point here for non-scientists is that you can stand up at a meeting and say the moon’s made of blue cheese and it’s fine. Only after your work has been assessed by colleagues in the course of the normal publication process does it begin to have some credibility). So there’s a problem here, with what was an ‘observational study’, as to just what the findings mean – and the wise thing is to wait for the results of a ‘randomised controlled trial’ that is under way. 

The second source of mental strain is down to the ferociously named United States Preventive Services Task Force that has just (September 2015) come up with the recommendation that we should take aspirin to prevent bowel cancer. Why should we pay any attention? Because the ‘Force’ are appointed by the US Department of Health and they wield great influence upon medical practice – and because it’s the first time a major American medical organization has issued a broad recommendation to take aspirin to prevent a form of cancer.

In this latest oeuvre they confirm that the well-known risks attached to aspirin-eating (ulcers and stomach bleeding) are out-weighed by the protection against heart disease in those between the ages of 50 and 69 who are at high risk (e.g., have a history of heart attacks). If you feel your heart can take the strain you can find out your risk by using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s online risk assessment tool. To get an answer you need to know your age, sex (i.e. gender, as its called these days), cholesterol levels (total and high density lipoproteins, HDLs – they’re the ‘good’ cholesterol), whether you smoke and your systolic blood pressure (that’s the X in X/Y).

This is such a critical issue it’s worth seeing what the Task Force actually said: “The USPSTF recommends low-dose aspirin use for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colorectal cancer in adults ages 50 to 59 years who have a 10% or greater 10-year CVD risk, are not at increased risk for bleeding, have a life expectancy of at least 10 years, and are willing to take low-dose aspirin daily for at least 10 years.”

If you’re younger than 50 or over 70 you’re on your own: the Force doesn’t recommend anything. And if you’re 60 to 69 the wording of their advice is wonderfully delicate: The decision to use low-dose aspirin to prevent CVD (cardiovascular disease) and colorectal cancer in adults ages 60 to 69 years who have a greater than 10% 10-year CVD risk should be an individual one.”

So that’s cleared that up …

Er, not quite. Various luminaries have been quick to demur. For example, Dr. Steven Nissen, the chairman of cardiology at the Cleveland Clinic has opined that the Task Force “has gotten it wrong.” In other words aspirin does more harm than good – though he might be a bit late as seemingly an astonishing 40% of Americans over the age of 50 take aspirin to prevent cardiovascular disease. I reckon that’s about 40 million people. Mmm … so that’s where the 40,000 tonnes goes (well, about one-fifth of it).

What’s the advice?

We’re more or less where we came in. I take an aspirin, or more usually a paracetamol, when I’ve got a stonking headache. Otherwise I wouldn’t take any kind of pill or supplement unless there is an overwhelming medical case for so doing. And pill-poppers out there might note the findings of Eva Saedder and her pals at Aarhus University that the single, strongest independent risk factor for drug-induced serious adverse events is the number of drugs that the patient is taking.

References

Rothwell, P. et al. (2012). Short-term effects of daily aspirin on cancer incidence, mortality, and non-vascular death: analysis of the time course of risks and benefits in 51 randomised controlled trials, Lancet DOI:1016/S0140-6736(11)61720-0

Rothwell P. et al. (2012). Effect of daily aspirin on risk of cancer metastasis: a study of incident cancers during randomised controlled trial, Lancet DOI:1016/S0140-6736(12)60209-8

Lancet editorial on Rothwell et al. 2011.

Algra, A. and Rothwell, P. (2012). Effects of regular aspirin on long-term cancer incidence and metastasis: a systematic comparison of evidence from observational studies versus randomised trials, Lancet Oncology DOI:10.1016/S1470-2045(12)70112-2.

Frouws M et al. Aspirin and gastro intestinal malignancies; improved survival not only in colorectal cancer? Conference abstract. European Cancer Congress 2015

Press release: Post diagnosis aspirin improves survival in all gastrointestinal cancers. The European Cancer Congress 2015. September 23 2015

Cuzick J, Thorat MA, Bosetti C, et al. Estimates of benefits and harms of prophylactic use of aspirin in the general population. Annals of Oncology. Published online August 5 2014

U.S. Preventive Services Task Force Draft Recommendation Statement: Aspirin to Prevent Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer

Saedder, E.A. et al. (2015). Number of drugs most frequently found to be independent risk factors for serious adverse reactions: a systematic literature review. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology 80, 808–817.

 

Dennis’s Pet Menace

As it happened, I’d already agreed to appear on Jeremy Sallis’ Lunchtime Live Show on BBC Radio Cambridgeshire – the plan being just to chat about cancery topics that might be of interest to listeners. Which would have been fine – if only The World Health Organization had left us in peace. But of course they chose last Tuesday to publish their lengthy cogitations on the subject of whether meat is bad for us – i.e. causes cancer.

Cue Press extremism: prime example The Times, quite predictably – they really aren’t great on biomedical science – who chucked kerosene on the barbie with the headline ‘Processed meats blamed for thousands of cancer deaths a year’.

But – to precise facts – and strictly it’s The International Agency for Research on Cancer, the cancer agency of the World Health Organization (WHO), that has ‘evaluated the carcinogenicity of the consumption of red meat and processed meat.’

But hang on … haven’t we been here before?

Indeed we have. As long ago as January 2012 in these pages we commented on the evidence that processed meat can cause pancreatic cancer and in May of the same year we reviewed the cogitations of the Harvard School of Public Health’s 28 year study of 120,000 people that concluded eating red meat contributes to cardiovascular disease, cancer and diabetes. To be fair, that history partially reflects why the WHO Working Group of 22 experts from 10 countries have taken so long to go public: they reviewed no fewer than 800 epidemiological studies! However, as the most frequent target for study was colorectal (bowel) cancer, that was the focus of their report released on 26th October 2015.

So what are we talking about?

Red meat, which means any unprocessed mammalian muscle meat, e.g., beef, veal, pork, lamb, mutton, horse or goat meat, that we usually cook before eating.

Processed meat: any meat not eaten fresh that has been salted, cured, smoked or whatever and commonly treated with chemicals to enhance flavour and colour and to prevent the growth of bacteria.

What did they say?

Processed meat is now classified as carcinogenic to humans – that is it goes into the top group (Group 1) of agents that cause cancer.

Red meat is probably carcinogenic to humans (Group 2A). Group 2B is for things that are possibly carcinogenic to humans.

Why?

Because 12 of the 18 studies they reviewed showed a link between consumption of processed meat and bowel cancer and because it’s known that agents commonly added to processed meat (nitrates and nitrites) can, when we eat them, turn into chemicals that can directly damage DNA, i.e. cause mutations and hence promote cancers.

For red meat 7 out of 15 studies showed positive associations of high versus low consumption with bowel cancer and there is strong mechanistic evidence for a carcinogenic effect i.e. when meat is cooked genotoxic (i.e. DNA-damaging) chemicals can be generated. They put red meat in the probably group because several of the studies that the Working Group couldn’t fault – and therefore couldn’t leave out – showed no association.

Stop woffling

My laptop likes to turn ‘woffling’ into ‘wolfing’. Maybe it’s trying to tell me something.

But is The WHO trying to tell us something specific about wolfing? To be fair, they have a go by estimating that every 50 gram portion of processed meat (say a couple of slices of bacon) eaten daily increases the risk of bowel cancer by about 18%. For red meat the data ‘suggest’ that the risk of bowel cancer could increase by 17% for every 100 gram portion eaten daily.

And what might that mean?

In the UK about 6 people in 100 get bowel cancer: if you take The WHO maximum estimate and have everyone eat 50 grams of processed meat every day of their lives such that 18% more of them would get bowel cancer, the upshot would be 7 people in 100 rather than 6. So it’s a small rise in a relatively small risk.

As the report points out, the Global Burden of Disease Project reckons diets high in processed meat cause about 34,000 cancer deaths per year worldwide and, if the reported associations hold up, the figure for red meat would be 50,000. Compare those figures with smoking that increases the risk of lung cancer by 20-fold and The WHO’s estimate of up to 6 million cancer deaths per year globally caused by tobacco use and 600,000 per year by alcohol consumption.

All of which suggests that it isn’t very helpful to lump meat eating, tobacco and asbestos in the same cancer-causing category and that The WHO could do worse than come up with a new classification system.

And the message?

Unchanged. Remember mankind evolved into the most successful species on the planet as a meat eater. As the advert used to say: It looks good, it tastes good and by golly it does you good – not least as a source of protein, vitamins and other nutrients. Do some exercise and eat a balanced diet – just in case you’ve forgotten, that means limit the amount of red meat (The WHO suggests no more than 30 grams a day for men, 25 g for women) so try fish, poultry, etc. Stick with the ‘good carbs’ (vegetables, fruits, whole grains, etc.), cut out the ‘bad’ (sugar – see Biting the Bitter Bullet), eat fishy fats not saturated fats and, to end on a technical note, don’t pig out.

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‘The Divine Swine’ Castelnuovo Rangone, Italy

Meanwhile back on the Beeb

When the meat story broke I was a bit concerned that we might end up spending the whole of Lunchtime Live on how many bangers are lethal – especially as we were taking calls from listeners. Just in case things became a bit myopic I had Rasher up my sleeve. Rasher, you may recall, was Dennis the Menace‘s pet pig (in the The Beano‘s comic strip) who had a brother (Hamlet), a sister (Virginia Ham) and various other porky rellos. To bring it up to date we’d have introduced Sam Salami and Frank Furter and, of course, Rasher’s grandfather who was the model for the bronze statue named ‘The Divine Swine’ to be found in the little town of Castelnuovo Rangone in Pig Valley, Italy, the home of Parma ham.

But I shouldn’t have worried. All was well in the hands of Jeremy Sallis who, being a brilliant host, ensured that we mainly chatted about meatier matters than what to have for breakfast.

References

Press release: IARC Monographs evaluate consumption of red meat and processed meat.

Q&A on the carcinogenicity of the consumption of red meat and processed meat.

Carcinogenicity of consumption of red and processed meat. www.thelancet.com/oncology Published online October 26, 2015